The Grammys eligibility period came to an end on September 15, 2023, so we’ve now officially heard all the albums that qualify for consideration at the upcoming awards. But the front-runner to win Album of the Year according to the combined predictions of Gold Derby users is a collection that came out at the very beginning of the season: Taylor Swift‘s “Midnights.” If we’re right, it would be an achievement unmatched by any artist in Grammy history.

Swift won Album of the Year for “Fearless” in 2010, “1989” in 2016 and “Folklore” in 2021. That’s the most wins ever in the category for a female artist, and it tied her as the most awarded artist of any gender. The only other performers with three Album of the Year trophies are Frank Sinatra, Paul Simon and Stevie Wonder. If Swift indeed wins a fourth she would stand alone among recording artists and tie engineers Tom Coyne, Şerban Ghenea and John Hanes for the most wins by any individual.

It would cap an unprecedented year for Swift. “Midnights” launched with an astronomical 1.57 million equivalent album units, and almost a year after its release it’s still in the top 10 on the Billboard 200. But that’s just the tip of the iceberg. During the eligibility period she released another chart-topping album, “Speak Now (Taylor’s Version).” Her single “Anti-Hero” became her longest-running number-one hit with eight weeks atop the Billboard Hot 100. She embarked on her Eras Tour, which may go down as one of the most successful in history. She won nine VMAs including a record-extending fourth trophy for Video of the Year. And as of this writing she has five of the top 15 albums in the country.

On one hand, recording academy voters might balk at giving so many historic accolades to an artist who’s still not even 35-years-old. On the other hand, if there’s no one clear alternative for the prize, she could end up being the default choice after an indomitable year of achievements.

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